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as posted yonks ago...maybe some 1000 days ago in this forum...civil war in iraq is inevitable.
here is a piece that states the obvious...dream on, usa's war loving industrialists and cheney/bush/rumsfeld tri-umviate!
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/20051222/iraq_game_over.php merry x'mas and happy new year all!
Comments
At this moment in Iraq, we are dealing with the jihadis, who are coming in from outside to raise hell: crime on the streets is rampant: ex-Ba'athists and Fedayeen are still running around making trouble: Americansoldiars are getting blown up: suicide bombings have driven out the UN and many NGO's: and there is a potential now for the country to fragment---Shia in Shia, Shia on Sunni, Kurds on Turkomans: you name it. It is a pwder keg. If thereis a center that can hold this mess together, I don't know what it is. Civil war could break out at any tie. Resources are needed: a strategy is needed: a plan is needed." - page 435
BATTLE READY - by Tom Clancy with General Tony Zinni (Ret.) and Tony Koltz. 2004
....so this is new NEWS factycrab? I think it has been rather evident for some time to many people
Civil war? Best news I've heard in a while. See the Kurds will declare their own state, the Shiite and the Kurds will both decide to stomp the living crap out of the Suuni thus making them irrelevant. Then we only have to deal with the Siite as the Kurds are very grateful foir this opportunity.
The upside is that the militant a-holes will be wasting their time killing off themselves leaving more time for Haliburton to rape the natural resources of the couontry.
and potentially some collateral damage...maybe the next steven hawking...
in war people die. if the cold war taught us anything it taught us that by NOT going to war we can save lives. The new asymetrical threats we face a a nation are not going to be solved by brute force in the future. we shoul use the current situ as an opportunity to learn how we deal with the new threats
pro-war: we're going to save them from sadam with democracy and iraq will prosper.
anti-war: no need to waste your resources america...it's a no win and there will never be peace there and america would lose zillions!
others: let the iraqis slaughter themselves whether with sadam doing it or other factions doing it later. sadam is no immortal and sooner or later there'll be other dictators.
moral of the story?
don't go invading others unless you have a few millions enlisted and you are hitler-type (hic, bush?) or prepared to use nukes!
Open debate, questioning and discussion on solutions needs to be encouraged urgently.
The US certainly should not feel comfortable that it has prevented attacks on US soil. It is likely that its opponents don't see the need at present. The US is essentially bleeding from the cost of the war, from the huge number of injured soldiers and grieving families, from its lost prestige and new status as a misguided nation.
The greates hope for preventing future attacks is to:
1) change America's outloook to one of respect for other nations and international conventions and law.
2) do a better job of looking after its own poor and disadavantaged,
3) reign in the rampant abuses by large corporations
4) listen to the views of other countries and cultures, and appreciate that people want to live differently from America.
5) redresss the massive bias toward to use and threat of military action by building up forces for peace [not peace-keepers, or patriot anti-missile systems or spy networks or armed guards on every corner, but education and facilities for dialogue, cultural appreciation, sharing of rewards from peaceful cooperation, grass roots involvement in decision making, global replacement of words like:
"enemies" with "friends we need to know better"
"evil" with "different" or "needing development"
"rights" with "expectations"
"religion" with "our personal beliefs"
"media" with "independent news sources"]
There is a correct call in the US for threat assessment and protection of chemical facilities from attack. I couldn't agree more, and as one who works in this field, I have fears that attacks will come with quite disastrous results.
However, the means of protecting these sites from determined attack are limited. In the short term, the reduction in threat through measures such as those listed above, would be far more effective than largely illusiary security measures.
Iraq won't be a pretty picture during 2006, and should not distract the US from working hard to rebuild its support internationally and lessen the numbers of opponents who want to hurt it.
Those who harbour concerns that 911 was allowed to happen to create the conditions we have seen since, may well fear another attempt to refocus public attention on an enemy and need to allow the President powers to "protect Americans".
We still haven't seen all the truth about 911 and there is a need for the public to see the facts and the fruits of the information age. Accountability comes from openness, not secrecy and manipulation of information.
My American friends, there is truly much to do.
Seasons Greetings and a happier New Year!
Spin
personally, i am sure that america has been reasonably wounded by this escapade to the extend that the people will not allow any more invasion to happen...
the usa will not be in a position to invade again if they don't invoke "conscription" (draft?)...and if anyone in capitol hill whispers that it's pure suicide...
what is america's total in uniformed forces at present? half a million? or more? but never in the wwII peak of 2m right?
i think bushey boy has done the world abit of good at least...his sytupidity has at least reined in the fascists in america abit...as the greenies and anti-war lobbies are now strong...
But why did this lesson need to be learnt?
Only because too many don't think and take uninformed decisions.
In the eighties, I worked for a Division based in Baghdad. Life there wasn't bad for most people until Saddam Hussein found his policies under threat from outside. I don't agree with his monstrous actions under seige but I respect the history of Iraq and knew enough of the Iraqi mind, and for that matter thinking throughout the Middle East to see the grave mistakers being repeated.
So may leaders tried to warn the Bush administration and were insulted in return for their efforts.
I have no time for Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and the others who prosecuted this ill-conceived war. They will have to do a lot more than they are currently doing to restore any respect. In Bush's case, I don't think he has the intelligence to succeed, Cheney is too cunning and is determined to hard-nose it out. His mistake was over-confidence. Rumsfeld is cornered. The American people are resourceful and have to take back the role stolen from them by the Iraq Group in the Whitehouse.
Leaders in Eurpope and Asia are also likely to be strenthened in their resolve to avoid repeat, say in Iran or North Korea.
That much good may come out this all, but what a price paid by those with little say in it all.
Spin
Can you list the major inventions, cures great ideas that have coime from any iut the world of the Western European, Asian or American say in the last couple of hundred years?
Oh, yes the lack of same are all down to oprression and racisim.
I wonder what's left of that now, and more importantly what that loss has done to the people.
Emmett, with respect, it is really not for you or your fellow countrymen to judge that loss. Just perhaps, try to appreciate it and learn something from it.
In our Christmas musings and reflections with friends from many countries and cultures, one point of unanimity was that one should not devalue or destroy that which one does not understand, especially if it doesn't belong to you.
Now, before anyone jumps down my throat, yes,
1) that applies to terrorists too,
2) yes I shouldn't criticise the US either,
(except where its actions affect me and mine, and that's what drives my postings on the subject).
Spin
mesopotania!
inventions amongst the oppressed? gunpowder! invented by the chinese in pre-genghis khan and attila days, 4000 years ago when the pre-vikings were hitting their women on their heads and dragging their women through caves... ;)
yoga in india was practiced 3,000 years ago and herbal treatment from china and india used till now after 4000 years which western medicine is frantically learning from...
I have started with the premis that no one would intentially try to do harm to the US reputation and that bullies are viewed the same the world over. So although the folks in the exec branch are not helping the US stature int he world there has to be a reason for them to be doing what they are doing and they must believe that what they are doing is good. What I am suggesting is that I have been trying to get inside the logic of of the decision making that has been going on.
I have not thought all of this through as of yet but it seems to me that it may have just reached a point of frusration. I think that some people inside the beltway just decided that it would be easier for them to make decsions and show the world that we could. I suspect that some of them viewed the US as being trampled on for many years and not taken seriously by puppet leaders adn it was finally time to stand up and knock some of these posers up the side of the head in exhasperation. Again, I am just trying to understand the logic of decsionmaking.
Obviiously this type of hinking eventually leads to the worst aspecs of empire. It leads to decsionmaking based upon and "I know best" attitdude which then leads to absolute power corrupts absolutely.
I am now continueing to hear that many int he current administraton don't like to be the bearer of bad news as too many messengers have been killed. this has led to a situ where he Presdent's new clothes are looking marvelous. I expect this to reach abreakign point in the near future and hopefully lead to an awakening and a reality check in the executive branch.
Now, Dr. Spin, as relates to yoru talkign points:
"1) change America's outloook to one of respect for other nations and international conventions and law. "
It should be interesting to see how the perception changes when the pendulum swings back the other way and the winds of US politics change back. How much repair work will need ot be done. Will it present an opportunity fo the next President to ahve open dialogue with other heads of state. Wil the head bashing that this admin has done and continues ot do se teh state for better international cooperation witht e next President in the future? Will the next President be able to walk softly again after this President has so often reached for the stick?
2) do a better job of looking after its own poor and disadavantaged,
yes, we have always been guilty of that. However, due to the nature of asymetrcial threats I think that had we done more to help the situ in the Balkans we could have prevented a lot of bloodshed. Perhaps we need to invest mroe in the stavign off potetnial powderkegs that could cost the lives of peopel in many countries adn could thefore affect our national security. Would it have doen us better to support the Kurds better int he past? Would we have been better of supporting Aideed in Somalia instead of offending him? Would we have been better off in Iraq if we had not sent that twit Bremer to muck up everything and offend every damn tribal leader there? Perhaps we need to use more forethought and contingency planning in all of our AOR's
3) reign in the rampant abuses by large corporations
I think it is interesting to view the GDP numbers of countries overlayed with major corporations. When you look at the soical responsability that hstarts to happen when companies grow to acertain size I think you start to see interesting trends. Take British Petroleum as an example. These guys have on on of the best plans for growthin alternative fuels I ahve seen. I think that once companies get ot a certain size that they begin to think about what soical responsabilites they have to their future shareholders adn how the profit motive actually has a longer term view...and this, in many newly developng cases, appears to actaully be in the best interests of all peoples. I think that this could prove to be an interesting political and social development ot watch over the next 2-300 hundred years
4) listen to the views of other countries and cultures, and appreciate that people want to live differently from America.
I think ha tmany people do. I think that our media here in the US does not provide us with much of a worldview as that does nto hit the middle of the bell shaped curve of the media demo. basiclally there are only 13 owners of all the tv and radio stations in the US. That is why we have "format rock stations" here. Not much new and innovative coming out of our musc scene int he last 15 years due to this consolidations. Concurrently there is not much coming out of the 4th estate as far a new news. If anything has become CORPORATE it has been the media outlets int he US.
In conjunction with that has been the strenght of the NEA in the US. This union has stifled creativleity and promoted tenure in the teaching community. Essentially we have weak teachers and continue to retain bad ones....kind a like that movie Brittania Hospital from back in the 70's (part of a 3 movie set by Bertrand Blier). Due to these and other factors the American people may nto be as well informed as some people in other parts of the world. Unfortunately all eyes tend to be focused on the US and the world can see into our glass bowl and also look around. SOmetimes we tend to be so caught up in wha is going on in out little glass bowl that we failt o look outside. How will this change. I am not sure. But, perhaps, you might ave a better understandign of why "americans" view things the way they do.
5) redresss the massive bias toward to use and threat of military action by building up forces for peace [not peace-keepers, ....
I think I started this off with my comments about this specific remark. The only thing I think I should add is that I disagree with yrou very first point about "not peace-keepers" I personally believe that one of the transformations that must take place within the US military is more development and training for operations other than war. This has been ont he table for over 10 years withing the variosu branches of the US military. Actaully the US military is more uniquely postioned to handle these oeprations than any one else in the world. Although it would be nice if the UN could so this the UN is way too political and makes the inside the beltway antics look perfectly honest and rationale, hence the UN is too politicized for these missions.
For further reading you may want to check out:
http://www.au.af.mil/au/aul/bibs/mootw/mootw3.htm
http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/RRR.fall97.QDR/sideshow.html
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/new_pubs/jp3_07.pdf
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jrm/mootw.pdf
BTW, you may want to check out my blogsite. I've used it post articles that I can reference to folks when I 'm having a political discussion. I've tried to not do too much commnetary there but there is room for your comments.
http://berniemartin.blogspot.com/
[Edited on 28/12/2005 by bernie]
Remember, the letters and numbers we primarily use today are a result of Arabic culture/science. Same too goes for astronomy - leaders in their day.
However, a reformation is needed to unleash them from the 7th century mindset so they can once again atart living outside the more chioking ideas of their religion.
Take Gallileo for example - both what he did and what the Church tried and eventually did to him.
In 1969 rolling stone magazine ran a story about how only 2% of motorcycle riders gave all motorcyle riders a bad name. henceforth after that, the Pagans', our local east coast motor cycle "club" began wearing 2% patches to indicate that they made up the entire 2%. I used to have one of those 2% patches but I can no longer find it. Really a shame as I like the appeal of the secret statement it makes.
As is the case in most bad apples it is only a small minority that give the entire a bad name. I recently read an article about the bad rep that madrassas have gotten due to a small group of bad apple schools.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060101facomment85102/alexander-evans/understanding-madrasahs.html
I think that you are correct that a sort of 'reformation" is necessary and I think folks like Sistani would be the ones we want to have come out on top of that process. However, it would be useful if we didn't piss off the ones who are realy our best allies as we have been doing.
I don't think you're going to find any innovation int he last 100 years or so. I also recetnly read an article about how the oil wealth of the middle east has lead to a decay in work ethic and innovation. the "silver spoon" syndrome. (Wish I could find that article of remember where i read it) Unfortunate how monopolistic fixed cash flow can lead to laziness. Unfortunately, the lack of foresight by countries in the middle east, like saudi arabia, is going to lead to bloody revolution once the oil revenue dries up... It is becasue of this that we should act now to address this eventual outcome. Please refer to my previous discussion regarding these typs of asymetrical threats and our need to come up with solutions.
It may be closer than we think.
2%
1969
http://www.hells-angels.com
dst - as someone who has spent so much time being served as opposed to serving I think you might want to remian quiet on the issue of why people sacrifice.
For further reading you may want to check out:
http://www.au.af.mil/au/aul/bibs/mootw/mootw3.htm
http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/RRR.fall97.QDR/sideshow.html
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/new_pubs/jp3_07.pdf
http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jrm/mootw.pdf
BTW, you may want to check out my blogsite. I've used it post articles that I can reference to folks when I 'm having a political discussion. I've tried to not do too much commnetary there but there is room for your comments.
http://berniemartin.blogspot.com/
Edited on 28/12/2005 by bernie] [/quote]
Good stuff, Bernie. You're on my reading list.
Spin
Oh, and that Marine running the JCS ordered a pullout 33 minutes ago
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Mideast_Pace.html
oh, and I welcome your comments and insights
What'd ya think about my new name for your Blogsite Bernie?
The Harvard Classics. 1909–14.
CLXXXVII
And now we are sending you to Rome to spy out the land; but none send a coward as such a spy, that, if her hear but a noise and see a shadow moving anywhere, loses his wits and comes flying to say, The enemy are upon us! 1
So if you go now, and come and tell us: “Everything at Rome is terrible: Death is terrible, Exile is terrible, Slander is terrible, Want is terrible; fly, comrades! the enemy are upon us!” we shall reply, Get you gone, and prophesy to yourself! we have but erred in sending such a spy as you. Diogenes, who was sent as a spy long before you, brought us back another report than this. He says that Death is no evil; for it need not even bring shame with it. He says that Fame is but the empty noise of madmen. And what report did this spy bring us of Pain, what of Pleasure, what of Want? That to be clothed in sackcloth is better than any purple robe; that sleeping on the bare ground is the softest couch; and in proof of each assertion he points to his own courage, constancy, and freedom; to his own healthy and muscular frame. “There is no enemy near,” he cries, “all is perfect peace!”
I think "benie's blog" has a ncie ring to it actually
[Edited on 30/12/2005 by bernie]
Qassam rockets, Improvised explosive devices, body bombs, Scuds, machine gunner under the floorboards, ...!
Spin